The last ten years have been a wild ride for this planet, but I’m sure the next ten are going to be even more exciting. I’d like to offer my predictions of what we’ll see around now, ten years in the future.
The browser will continue its domination in the world of applications, absorbing more of what we do in desktop applications. A significant fraction of software development will happen in the browser, though most development will still happen on the desktop. WebGL will be starting to become a major platform for gaming. IE6 will be a war story told by greybeard developers, Microsoft having jumped back into the browser race and caught up to the leaders of the pack. No single browser will have a majority share worldwide. Javascript will still be the biggest language, but it will have gone through a few language iterations. The browser JS VM will be near the speed of native code, less than 25% slower.
Devices will continue to double in capacity and speed every few years. In 2020 you won’t have a desktop computer. You’ll have something in the form-factor of a laptop or tablet that you dock and charge wirelessly wherever you device to work. Hard-drives as we know them today won’t exist in most machines, replaced by various forms of multi-terabyte solid-state storage.
You’ll be carrying around a mini-computer in your pocket that runs at the equivalent speed of today’s MacBook Pro. It’ll multitask easily with a few GB of RAM and have nearly a terabyte of solid-state storage onboard. The mobile experience will be a scaled-down, synchronized version of your larger machine rather than an entirely separate device. In fact, some people may eschew the larger device and hook their mobile device wirelessly into display and input devices when they want an easier environment to work in.
Your phone and laptop will have high-end cameras with thin liquid lenses that will be good enough for most people to stop carrying around dedicated point-and-shoot cameras.
E-books will continue to grow, but the functionality will move out of dedicated devices and into portable computers with improved screens that work as well as e-paper today. Electronic textbooks will have taken over the majority share of post-secondary education and will start to make inroads in earlier school grades.
Land-lines will be a legacy technology in 2020. Most people will opt to forward their personal cell phones to an adapter that rings a home number as well when the phone is nearby. Telcos will start offering a much-higher-fidelity audio codec for cell phones that offers VoIP-quality conversations.
True electronic commerce will be starting to emerge in 2020, replacing wallets with your electronic devices for power users. Instead of carrying around a dozen ID and payment cards, people will have the option of storing them digitally and presenting them wirelessly. Electronic banking will take off, providing safe, standard web-based APIs around your personal finances and investments.
Our understanding of genetics today will look primitive compared to that of 2020. In 2020, genomics will have high-level structures that understand and codify the development and existence of organisms, allowing us to symbolically describe and modify how genes are turned on and off, like a computer program. We will have genetic fixes for a few of the big genetic disorders today. Some of these fixes will be applied to the human germline as well, wiping the diseases out entirely for descendants.
Car travel will take a number of big steps forward. In 2020, most modern cars will aware of each other to some degree and offer basic driving coordination like avoiding rear-end collisions and traffic management. Most cars will be LTE-capable and have online traffic updates, integration with your personal mail and text-to-speech for handsfree web ‘listening’. Rare features today such as heads-up night-vision displays and 360º visibility cameras will trickle down to a much larger segment of vehicles.
Personal space travel will be uncommon, but available for individuals for a cost around $100,000. Small space travel outfits will have small, but permanent space stations for the travellers to dock and stay for a few nights. Humans will be in the planning stages for the first extra-terran mission in our solar system since the moon landings which will involve nations from around the world.
Thoughts on where I’ve missed the boat, or neglected an important up-and-coming change? Leave comments below or select a paragraph to add your thoughts inline.
